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Daily Market Watch for Monday, December 11, 2017 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
Short Term Trend (5 days or less): Favors steady rates and fractionally lower prices.
Long Term Trend (6 days or more): Favors stable rates and steady to fractionally lower prices.

Last Friday’s nonfarm payroll report has eliminated any doubt among credit market participants the Fed will choose to bump short-term interest rates 25 basis points higher after their two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon. This rate-hike event has been priced into the mortgage market for weeks now so the announcement itself will probably be anticlimactic in terms of its impact on rate sheets.

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. CT the inflation story from the wholesalers' perspective will be told with the release of the November Producer Price Index. Overall producer prices are not expected to meaningfully threaten the current level of mortgage interest rates.

The November Consumer Price Index, a survey of price pressures on Main Street USA will be released Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. CT.

The current consensus forecast from economists is projecting both measures of inflation pressure at the consumer level will tick higher from October levels. As long as the “core” rate of the consumer price index, a value stripped of volatile food and energy costs posts an expected gain of 0.2% or less, the current trend trajectory will remain intact. In the unlikely event the month-over-month increase for the core consumer price index comes in at 0.3% or higher – anticipate a knee-jerk reaction from mortgage investors that will push rates higher and prices lower.

As I mentioned earlier, the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to convene two days of monetary policy talks, beginning tomorrow and wrapping up on Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. with the release of their traditional post-meeting statement. An expected 25 basis point rate hike is already fully priced into the mortgage market.

Most credit market participants have penciled in expectations the Fed will move to tighten their short-term benchmark interest rates three more times in 2018. In the unlikely event language in the Fed's post-meeting statement leads credit market participants to believe there will be more than three rate hikes likely next year – look for mortgage investors to nudge rates higher by the end of the day.

November Retail Sales figures will hit the newswires at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday and the week’s economic report schedule will conclude Friday morning with the 9:15 a.m. release of the November Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figures on Friday. Neither of these two reports is expected to influence the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates one way or the other.
Rates Last Updated 12/11/17, 9:30 AM CST 
 Crdt. Score 
 Dbt. Ratio 
  *Rates and terms are subject to change at any time and certain variations, restrictions, or improvements may apply based on creditworthiness, loan amount, property type, etc. APR's do not include mortgage insurance which may be required for LTVs greater than 80%, or closing costs from undetermined third parties including the title company.
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Contact Information
Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Houston:Ellen Roloff Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2
Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833

Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833

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