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Daily Market Watch for Tuesday, September 30, 2014 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
SHORT-TERM TREND (5 days or less). Favors lower rates and higher prices.
LONG-TERM TREND (6 days or more) Tilted in favor of lower rates and higher prices.
 
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net
How The DJIA & NASDAQ Can Affect Rates

(Note: If the Charts above do not appear, please click 'Refresh' in your browser)
Commentary: Trading in the mortgage market is thin and sporadic today. Portfolio adjustments related to end-of-the-month and end-of-the-quarter seem to be driving most of the action.



Mortgage investors appear to be moving into their “wait-and-see” mindset as they brace for the release of the September nonfarm payroll report on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. As I write the consensus estimate among economists is still calling for total headline job creation of 245,000 – a 100,000+ improvement over the 142,000 new jobs created in August. The national jobless rate is projected to remain unchanged at 6.1%.



Report numbers that closely approximate the consensus estimate will have little, if any impact on mortgage interest rates. A headline payroll number greater than 250,000 and/or a national jobless rate of 6.0% or less will probably send mortgage investors scrambling to mark up interest rates and mark down prices.



As I write, my probability bias algorithms are assigning a 7-out-of-10 chance to the likelihood Friday’s nonfarm payroll data matches or exceeds the consensus estimate.



Should headline job creation in September fall notably below 245,000 and/or should the national jobless rate move above 6.2% one or both of these events will set off all kinds of warning bells about an economy slowing to stall speeds. This scenario will almost certainly ignite selling pressures in the stock markets creating a direct benefit to the prospects for steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.



My probability bias algorithms are currently assigning a 3-out-of-10 chance the September payroll data falls significantly below the expected 245,000 headcount.



The “wild card” in terms of the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates this week will continue to revolve around trading action in the stock markets. Higher stock prices will tend to push mortgage rates higher while weaker stock prices will probably prove supportive of the prospects for steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates. As I mentioned earlier in this commentary month-end and quarter-end portfolio adjustments typically create some sizable reallocations of capital in the equity and bond markets. Look for market volatility to remain high.



Be patient – be disciplined – and manage your pipeline risk with the recommended strategies above in mind.
 
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

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Jim Norris - President                                                          Elle Roloff - Operations Manager

908 Town & Country #120                                                     908 Town & Country #120
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