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Daily Market Watch for Thursday, January 19, 2017 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
Short Term Trend (5 days or less): Favors higher rates and lower prices.
Long Term Trend (6 days or more): Favors fractionally higher rates and lower prices.
                      30 Year Fixed (National Average)
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net


Dow Jones Industrial Average Last 5 Days          


The Labor Department reported earlier this morning the number of Americans standing in line to file first-time claims for government jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 234,000 during the week ended January 14th. Mortgage investors generally shrugged off the news – reasoning the low level of claims was probably influenced by the tail-end of the major holiday season that stretches from Thanksgiving through the Martin Luther King holiday.

Even with the ups and downs of the past several weeks, new filings remain comfortably below the 300,000 mark – an indication the far more important nonfarm payroll numbers will remain solid in coming months. Good news for the economy in general – not so much for the prospects of notably lower mortgage interest rates ahead.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department announced the pace of new home construction surged 11.3% higher on a month-over-month basis in December. The entire gain was generated by the volatile multi-family component of the data. Single-family home construction slipped 4% lower in December. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, slipped 0.2% lower than November yet finished the year 0.7% higher than the annualized 2015 mark. Mortgage investors yawned.

Under the heading of “things that bear watching closely” we will include chatter coming from various Fed governors suggesting it may be time for the Fed to begin reducing the size of the $4.5 trillion dollar portfolio of Treasury debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities it amassed as part of its three-different quantitative easing programs. The multi-year credit market feeding frenzy by the Fed was designed to give the economy a push out of the depths of the Great Recession dating back to 2008.

Cutting through all the mumbo-jumbo surrounding this story here is the whole thing in a nutshell – the Fed is currently reinvesting amortizing principal and incoming interest payments to buy more Treasury debt obligations and especially mortgage-backed securities in an ongoing effort to keep interest rates lower. As I write the Fed is gobbling up about 20% of all new mortgage-backed securities coming on to the market. Since the Fed doesn’t really have a profit objective –they tend to be one of the most aggressive buyers in the market. As you might imagine – should that buying appetite begin to fade – the upward pressure on mortgage interest rates would grow proportionately for a while – and then disproportionately as price discovery is increasingly left to the volatility created by fair market activity.

Such an event is not going to occur tomorrow, next week or even next month in all likelihood. I just want you to be aware that chatter has begun – and the more chatter we hear along these lines – the more difficult it will become for rates to gain meaningful traction toward lower levels.

I will keep you posted on further developments here.
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

Recent Additions to The Sweetwater Real Estate Page View The Sweetwater Real Estate Page
12906 Golden Rainbow
Cypress , TX   77429
Agent: Lisa Ross Smith     713-291-8298
Monarch Real Estate Group
Date listed on this site: 1/14/2017

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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12906 Golden Rainbow Cypress TX 77429
13010 Meadowline Dr.
Houston , TX   77083
Agent: Sheila Joplin     (281)236-4555
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene
Date listed on this site: 12/12/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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13010 Meadowline Dr. Houston TX 77083
3219 Oak Park Ln
Missouri City , TX   77459
Agent: Linda Holder     281-437-3490
Linda Holder Properties
Date listed on this site: 11/2/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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3219 Oak Park Ln Missouri City TX 77459
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Contact Information



Jim Norris - President (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1 Toll Free


Elle Roloff Norris - Operations Manager (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 2
(866) 717-4556 ext 2 Toll Free



Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833

Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833

Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Houston:Ellen Roloff Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2


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