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Daily Market Watch for Friday, December 9, 2016 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
Short Term Trend (5 days or less): Favors steady rates and slightly lower prices.
Long Term Trend (6 days or more): Favors higher rates and lower prices.
                      30 Year Fixed (National Average)
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Last 5 Days          



 
Commentary:

The stock market rally continues unabated – and its upward trajectory is drawing significant amounts of capital out of the credit markets – a condition that has severely limited any attempt by mortgage interest rates to creep lower.

Looking ahead to the coming week – investor attention will be focused intently on the post-meeting statement scheduled to be issued from the Federal Open Market Committee (2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 14th) as they wrap-up a two-day monetary policy meeting.

The overwhelming consensus among market participants indicates the Fed is expected to raise their benchmark short-term interest rates into a target range between 0.5% - 0.75%. Such an outcome is fully priced into the mortgage market and is not anticipated to materially influence the current level of mortgage interest rates one way or the other.

Wednesday’s Fed announcement will capture the lion’s share of press coverage next week – but the economic calendar offers some other significant, potentially market moving data. The coming week will be action packed.

The Treasury Department will be conducting a three-part debt sale over the course of two days. The auction series begins on Monday with a “combo” deal -- $24 billion of 3-year notes and $20 billion of 10-year notes. The Treasury auction will wrap up at 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday when the final gavel falls on $12 billion of 30-year bonds.

The 3-year note yield at 1.388% is at its highest point since January 2012. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note has climbed 60 bps since the end of October – and is currently 2.424% -- a high last seen in June of 2015. Last but certainly not least, the 30-year Treasury bond is currently yielding 3.129% matching levels last achieved in June of 2015.

By comparison, the current dividend yield from all the stocks that compose the S&P 500 index is 2.00% and the average dividend for all stocks that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 2.76%.

On a risk adjusted basis investors may find it increasingly difficult to “pass” on buying higher-yielding “risk-free” Treasury debt obligations. If this assessment proves accurate, strong buying demand at next week’s Treasury debt sale will likely prove supportive for the near-term prospects of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

The economic calendar offers a substantial number of reports – starting with Wednesday’s trio of November Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figures. Economists are currently projecting the pace of inflation at the gates of the nation’s farms and factories rose noticeably last month while the pace of retail sales dropped markedly. If this assessment proves accurate, the impact of rising prices will likely win out over slower sales – producing some modest upward pressure on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.

Thursday will feature the November Consumer Price Index and the standard weekly jobless claims numbers. Analysts are currently projecting the pace of headline inflation at the consumer level throttled back a notch as energy prices retreated – but the more important “core” rate of inflation (a number excluding the volatile food and energy components) likely crept a touch higher. The increase in the core rate of inflation at the consumer level is broadly anticipated – a condition likely to neutralize the otherwise unfriendly impact the news might otherwise exert on mortgage interest rates.

The release of the November Housing Starts and Building Permit figures on Friday will finish out the week’s barrage of economic news. Starts are expected to retreat 7.0% from October levels while permits slump 1.5%. At this juncture the drop in both components of today’s report will be attributable to seasonal factors – a condition that will likely draw nothing more than a shoulder shrug from mortgage investors.

Even though the TrueCast price projections for the DJIA have been invalidated -- the timing component of the model continues to assign a 9-out-of-10 chance to the likelihood a price high will be established within the next six trading days.

Any near-term bounce to higher prices and fractionally lower rates in the mortgage market remains heavily dependent on a significant correction in the stock markets. Until/unless such an event occurs – the prospects for a near-term move to lower mortgage rates will be limited.
 
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

Recent Additions to The Sweetwater Real Estate Page View The Sweetwater Real Estate Page
13010 Meadowline Dr.
Houston , TX   77083
$197,000
Agent: Sheila Joplin     (281)236-4555
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene
Date listed on this site: 12/5/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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13010 Meadowline Dr. Houston TX 77083
 
3219 Oak Park Ln
Missouri City , TX   77459
$348,000
Agent: Linda Holder     281-437-3490
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Date listed on this site: 11/2/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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3219 Oak Park Ln Missouri City TX 77459
 
2310 Seahorse Bend
Katy , Texas   77449
$260,000
Agent: Paul Guinn     281-236-7865
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Date listed on this site: 10/12/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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2310 Seahorse Bend Katy Texas 77449
 
16319 Dawncrest Way
Sugar Land , TX   77498
$215,000
Agent: Linda Holder     281-437-3490
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Date listed on this site: 9/26/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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16319 Dawncrest Way Sugar Land TX 77498
 
1902 Oakhurst Pkwy
Sugar Land , TX   77479
$450,000
Agent: Linda Holder     281-437-3490
Linda Holder Properties
Date listed on this site: 9/26/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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1902 Oakhurst Pkwy Sugar Land TX 77479
 
1302 Laura Hills Ln
Spring , TX   77386
$293,000
Agent: ELSA MARTINEZ     832-860-8609
Texas Home Group Realtors
Date listed on this site: 9/15/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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1302 Laura Hills Ln  Spring TX 77386
 
 
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MANAGEMENT  

Jim Norris - President (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1 Toll Free

jim@sweetwatermortgage.com 

Elle Roloff Norris - Operations Manager (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 2
(866) 717-4556 ext 2 Toll Free
elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

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Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833
979-353-4234


Email:gayle@texashomeplacemortgage.com
Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833
979-353-4234
979-251-0726

Email:sandra@texashomeplacemortgage.com
Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Email:jim@sweetwatermortgage.com
Houston:Ellen Roloff Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2
Email:elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

 
 
  
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