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Daily Market Watch for Tuesday, September 16, 2014 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
SHORT-TERM TREND (5 days or less). Tilted in favor of higher rates and lower prices.
LONG-TERM TREND (6 days or more) Tilted in favor of higher rates and lower prices.
 
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net
How The DJIA & NASDAQ Can Affect Rates

(Note: If the Charts above do not appear, please click 'Refresh' in your browser)
Commentary: Different day … same story. We can pretty much throw the economic news out of the window this week.



The primary driver behind mortgage interest rate movement will be found in the text and tone of the Federal Open Market Committee’s post-meeting statement scheduled to be delivered to the world financial markets at 2:00 p.m. ET tomorrow afternoon.



In my opinion, here’s the crux of the story. It has been more than eight-years since the Fed has moved to tighten short-term interest rates. Now that the Fed is in the final stages of wrapping up more than $3 trillion worth of Treasury debt and agency-eligible mortgage-backed security purchases since 2008 there are market participants who believe the Fed will need to take a proactive approach to fend off the threat of developing inflation pressures – by slowly starting to raise the cost of borrowing in U.S. credit markets.



In my judgment, the inflation-fear story is very premature. As Daniel Kruger, columnist for Bloomberg, points out in an article he published yesterday, “On an annual basis, growth in hourly earnings in the past five years have been the weakest over the course of any expansion since at least the 1960s.”



The “so-what” factor here is simple and straightforward. Businesses can push up prices any time they choose -- but if the consumer can’t or won’t pay –prices increases just won’t stick. For this reason, unless/until the current slack in the labor market begins to fade noticeably while food and energy costs simultaneously show a sustain increase – it is a virtual certainty the pace of overall inflation in the economy will remain benign.



The question is whether the majority of the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee see the inflation-threat story from a similar perspective.



The prospect for steady to lower mortgage interest through the balance of the year will be dependent on whether the members of the Federal Open Market Committee keep their pledge to hold rates near zero for a “considerable time” -- or whether they choose to substitute a different phrase in Wednesday’s post-meeting statement.



If central bankers ditch the “considerable time” phrase -- credit market investors will likely see the door opening for a tightening of the Fed’s benchmark interest rates as early as March, 2015 – a scenario almost certain to put additional upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. While such an outcome is certainly possible – I see reasons to believe it is not very probable this time around.



Be patient – be disciplined – and manage your pipeline risk with the recommended strategies above in mind.



For what it is worth -- the headline August Producer Price Index remained unchanged while the “core” rate (excluding volatile food and energy costs) post a very benign gain of 0.1%. These numbers exactly matched the consensus estimate from economists. Mortgage investors gave the data nothing more than a passing glance as they put the finishing touches on their pipeline risk management strategies in front of tomorrow afternoon’s major release from the Federal Open Market Committee.
 
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

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Jim Norris - President                                                          Elle Roloff - Operations Manager

908 Town & Country #120                                                     908 Town & Country #120
Houston, TX 77024                                                                Houston, TX 77024
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