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Daily Market Watch for Wednesday, April 1, 2015 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
SHORT-TERM TREND (5 days or less). Tilted slightly in favor of higher prices and lower rates.
LONG-TERM TREND (6 days or more) Favors higher prices and lower rates.
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net
How The DJIA & NASDAQ Can Affect Rates

(Note: If the Charts above do not appear, please click 'Refresh' in your browser)
Commentary: According to private payroll company ADP – private businesses added 189,000 new jobs in March, down from 214,000 jobs in February. It marked the first time since January 2014 private firms added fewer than 200,000 jobs in a single month. The slowdown in private job creation is being attributed to a collapse in oil prices and the negative impact of a surging dollar on U.S. based companies that export goods and services.

A number of economists are revising downward their projections for Friday’s much more important headline March nonfarm payroll report from the Labor Department from earlier estimates calling for a gain of 255,000 to a revised 248,000. I think it is worth noting that in February the ADP job count suggested a nonfarm payroll number in the 230,000 range – far too pessimistic compared to the 295,000 number delivered by the government two days later.

A headline payroll number on Friday greater than 255,000 and/or a jobless rate of 5.5% or less should be expected to put strong upward pressure on mortgage rates -- while job creation of 240,000 or less and a jobless rate of 5.6% or higher should prove supportive of steady to perhaps slightly lower rates.

The average hourly earnings component of the March Payroll data will probably be the “wild card” this around. As I write, most analysts are expecting hourly earnings to have grown by at least 0.2% in March. If so, expectations for faster economic growth into the balance of the year will expand – exerting additional modest upward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

On the other hand, if average hourly earnings post a gain of 0.1% or less – many economists will see an erosion of household consumption developing into the summer – a condition analysts and investors will argue almost certain to weaken the backbone of domestic economic growth. Against this backdrop --mortgage interest rates will likely continue to flutter very close to current levels – even if March headline job growth is decent.

I prefer to view all of this macro-economic mumbo-jumbo through the lens of my TrueCast™ models. As I write, my models are indicating there is a 9-out-of-10 chance the March nonfarm payroll figures will match or exceed the consensus projections – a condition unsupportive of the prospects for notably lower mortgage interest rates.

As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America have released their Mortgage Application Survey figures for the week ended March 27th. The composite index rose 4.6% as refinance requests climbed 3.9% and purchase money activity increased 5.7%.

On a four-week moving average basis, refinance activity is down 16.4% -- but it is 26.2% higher from the year ago mark. Purchase application demand has increased by 2.3% over the past month and is 3.4% higher than this same time one year ago.

For the week ended March 27th refinance applications accounted for 60.0% of all mortgage loan app activity.

The contract rate for 30-year conforming mortgages fell by 1 basis-point over the past week to 3.89%. The interest rate is 7 basis-points lower from four-weeks ago and it is 67 basis-points below the year-ago mark.
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

Recent Additions to The Sweetwater Real Estate Page View The Sweetwater Real Estate Page
7919 Ellinger Ln.
Houston , TX   77040
Agent: Sheila Joplin     (832)334-0001
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene
Date listed on this site: 3/30/2015

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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7919 Ellinger Ln. Houston TX 77040
SPRING , TX   77379
Agent: Khairun Moton     832-443-5652
Date listed on this site: 3/11/2015

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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19938 Franz Rd,
Katy , TX   77449
Agent: Anjanette Fower     832-335-9393
Realty Pros Of Texas
Date listed on this site: 3/7/2015

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19938 Franz Rd, Katy TX 77449
19308 Desna
Porter , TX   77365
Agent: Tricia Frazier     832-233-7215
Realty Associates
Date listed on this site: 3/5/2015

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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19308 Desna Porter TX 77365
9407 Emerald Lakes
Rosharon , Texas   77583
Agent: Scott Mendell     281-433-7621
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices AP
Date listed on this site: 2/28/2015

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9407 Emerald Lakes Rosharon Texas 77583
17742 Washburne Lane
Houston , Texas   77095
Agent: Kathy and Mark Emery     281-464-6966
Executive Real Estate Services
Date listed on this site: 2/23/2015

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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17742 Washburne Lane Houston  Texas 77095
2377 Strangemeier Road
Brenham , Texas   77833
Agent: Jessica Andrade     979-421-3470
Champions Real Estate Group, LLC
Date listed on this site: 2/7/2015

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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2377 Strangemeier Road Brenham Texas 77833
2225 Silver Pine Drive
Las Vegas , NV   89108
Agent: David Schmidig     (832)888-0004
Nationwide Realty
Date listed on this site: 2/5/2015

Loan Officer: Elle Roloff-Norris (RMLO #304630)

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2225 Silver Pine Drive Las Vegas NV 89108
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Contact Information



Jim Norris - President (RMLO #304627)                            Elle Roloff - Operations Manager (RMLO #304630)

908 Town & Country #120                                                  908 Town & Country #120
Houston, TX 77024                                                             Houston, TX 77024
(281) 970-1082 ext 1                                                         (281) 970-1082 ext 2
(866) 717-4556 ext 1 Toll Free                                            (866) 717-4556 ext 2 Toll Free

jim@sweetwatermortgage.com                                            elle@sweetwatermortgage.com



Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833

Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833

Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Houston:Elle Roloff-Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 & 210-807-7285 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2


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