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Daily Market Watch for Monday, May 23, 2016 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
Short Term: Favors steady rates and slightly higher prices.
Long Term: Favors steady rates and slightly higher prices.
                      30 Year Fixed (National Average)
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Last 5 Days          



 
Commentary:



The coming week will feature April New Home Sales on Tuesday, April Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, and a look at revised second-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday. The mortgage market will close early at 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, May 27th and it will remain closed on Monday, May 30th for the Memorial Day Holiday



Uncle Sam will be banging around in the credit markets this week as well. He will be conducting a three-part, three-day debt sale. First up on the block on Tuesday will be $26 billion of 2-year notes followed on Wednesday by $34 billion worth of 5-year notes and the borrowing spree will wrap up on Thursday with the sale of $28 billion of 7-year notes.



On a collective basis none of the economic news or scheduled debt sales are expected to significantly affect mortgage interest rates one way or the other.



The most significant impediment to the prospects for lower mortgage interest rates this week will be created by the “will they – or won’t they” debate raging among investors regarding the likelihood of a 25 basis-points rate hike from the Fed at their upcoming mid-June Open Market Committee meeting.



To justify a move at its June meeting the Fed has set itself three tests; to see additional signs of a rebound in the economy in the second-quarter, further strengthening in the job market and for inflation to climb up and through the Fed’s 2% goal.



Let’s take a quick look at each of these three Fed targets;



* 1st quarter 2016 GDP posted a reading of 0.8% (if the consensus estimate for Friday’s revision proves accurate) after a reading of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015 – and that was down from a 2.0% reading in the third quarter of 2015.



* Over the past six months monthly net job creation has fallen from a high of 280,000 in November of 2015 to a low of 160,000 in April of 2016. (Granted, job creation numbers will fall as the economy approaches full employment – something to consider).



* Last but not least, the Fed’s stated favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index, has remained below the Fed’s 2% target – for four years.



I don’t know about you – but I find it difficult to see how the “data dependent” tests the Fed has established for themselves – and the numbers outlined above -- combine to support the current position of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee suggesting the economy is buzzing along at a pace that justifies an upward shift in monetary policy.



I am certainly nothing but an outsider looking in – but it seems the Fed is becoming “hell-bent” on raising short-term interest rates in the near-future – no matter what the “data” says.



As I write, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Fed Watch tool is indicating futures traders are currently assigning a roughly 1-out-of-4 probability to the likelihood the Fed will bump bench mark interest rates higher next month. That outlook is down from a roughly 1-out-of-3 chance set last Thursday.





If/when the Fed does push their benchmark short-term interest rates 25 basis-points higher my models are suggesting the Dow Jones Industrial Average will likely respond to the Fed’s implied forecast for accelerating economic growth ahead by climbing back toward the 18,100 mark. If this assessment proves accurate, be aware that higher stock prices will tend to drag mortgage interest rates higher as well.
 
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

Recent Additions to The Sweetwater Real Estate Page View The Sweetwater Real Estate Page
13015 Advance Dr
Houston , TX   77065
$140,000
Agent: Lisa Ross Smith     713-291-8298
Monarch Real Estate Group
Date listed on this site: 5/25/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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13015 Advance Dr Houston TX 77065
 
6911 Brewster
Missouri City , TX   77459
$385,000
Agent: Scott Mendell     281-433-7621
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices AP
Date listed on this site: 5/11/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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6911 Brewster Missouri City TX 77459
 
5544 Lawson
Houston , TX   77023
$339,990
Agent: Karen Cook     832-443-3642
Realty Associates
Date listed on this site: 4/3/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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5544 Lawson Houston TX 77023
 
6161 Reims Rd #205
Houston , TX   77036
$34,000
Agent: Laura Van Duyn     (713) 291-9034
Daumas Realty
Date listed on this site: 3/17/2016

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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6161 Reims Rd #205 Houston TX 77036
 
 
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Jim Norris - President (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1 Toll Free

jim@sweetwatermortgage.com 

Elle Roloff - Operations Manager (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 2
(866) 717-4556 ext 2 Toll Free
elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

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Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833
979-353-4234


Email:gayle@texashomeplacemortgage.com
Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833
979-353-4234
979-251-0726

Email:sandra@texashomeplacemortgage.com
Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Email:jim@sweetwatermortgage.com
Houston:Elle Roloff-Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2
Email:elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

 
 
  
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